A clear view of both prevalence and incidence is essential for healthcare planning—especially for chronic, resource-intensive conditions like type 2 diabetes (T2D). This case study summarizes a real-world evidence analysis that updated national T2D trends in the Netherlands over a 16-year period using a large, population-based general practice database.
Background
T2D is a major public health concern with growing clinical and economic impact. While rising prevalence has been widely reported, fewer studies have tracked incidence trends, even though incidence is critical for understanding whether prevention and early-risk management are changing the trajectory of the “diabetes epidemic.” The study’s objective was to update national trends in both prevalence and incidence of T2D in the Netherlands from 2004–2020, overall and by sex and age category.
Research challenge
The core challenge was to produce robust, comparable year-by-year national estimates of T2D prevalence and incidence over a long time horizon, despite common real-world data complexities:
- Ensuring consistent identification of T2D in routine primary care records (diagnoses and prescribing patterns)
- Interpreting diverging trends (rising prevalence with falling incidence), which can occur when survival improves and/or screening and undetected disease dynamics change
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